Josh Heit's blog


Monday, November 08, 2004

I told you I'd be back!

So let's start with something simple: a look back at my 2004 baseball predictions. Namely, the win totals, since I was bold enough to predict them for all 30 teams. And surprisingly, I got real close on a bunch.

[Formatting: Actual (Predicted)]

Dead on the money: Cleveland 80 (80), Chicago Cubs 89 (89).

I said Cleveland would threaten, and they did. I said Chicago wouldn't do as well as most expected, and they didn't.

Real close: Florida 83 (84), Tampa 70 (68), Boston 98 (100), Baltimore 78 (80), Atlanta 96 (98), Philadelphia 86 (88), NY Mets 71 (73), Colorado 68 (70).

I said Tampa wouldn't get to 70, they did. I figured Baltimore would be near .500, they were. I may have been the only person on earth to overpredict Atlanta. Philly an d Florida, again pretty good. The Mets I underpredicted, but definitely a better guess than most. Don't ask me how I got there on Colorado.

Enough off to matter: Los Angeles 93 (90), NY Yankees 101 (104), Houston 92 (95), Oakland 91 (96), San Diego 87 (92), Anaheim 92 (86), Milwaukee 67 (61), Cincinnati 76 (70).

Lot of playoff teams relatively close, but affecting my playoff standings. Like, say Oakland and Anaheim, or LA and SD. Or Houston, which somehow got within 3 of my prediction despite playing awful half the year. The Yankees? Meh. Also, I underpredicted Milwaukee and Cincy, which considering what I did with St. Louis (see later) seems odd.

Off a bunch: Montreal 67 (75), Minnesota 92 (83), Chicago White Sox 83 (74), San Francisco 91 (82), Seattle 63 (72).

Way to completely underestimate Minny, the White Sox, and the Giants. I'm surprised Montreal and Seattle got as close to my predictions as they did.

Um, did I actually say that?: Detroit 72 (58), Pittsburgh 72 (57), St. Louis 105 (87), Texas 89 (70), Toronto 67 (90), Kansas City 58 (84), Arizona 51 (79).

Did anyone pick Detroit to win 70? I didn't think so. Pittsburgh was my basement team in the NL, they were frisky. St. Louis...well, I didn't see that coming. I did see Texas coming, but I wasn't bold enough to go THAT far. Arizona had the bottom fall out; again, couldn't see that coming. Toronto and KC? OK, I screwed up just a bit.

All in all, not bad. 18 teams within 6 games, which is probably better than most pundits who would have made win predictions, which you don't see often. Next spring, I'll try to do the same thing, and with more information at hand, I'll probably screw up worse.


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